Thursday, 16 August 2012

US Dollar & Japan Yen Exchange Rate Update

Back in January and February, I was making the point that the Japan Yen exchange was in an unsustainable level and that severe depreciation would be needed if they wished to retain their manufacturing base.  In February, the Japanese government finally intervened to weaken the yen.  I argued that the size of their intervention was too small to significantly affect the exchange rate in the longer time frame and that more easing was required.

So 6 months later, where does the Yen exchange sit?  As seen below, there was a strong jump after the announcement, with the yen going from 76 to 84 in a month.  Since then, it has fallen back down to 78, retreating severely from its high.

As I said before, Japan's easing needs to be significantly larger if they want to (and they really do need to) weaken the Yen to the point that it doesn't decimate their economy.

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