Monday, 7 October 2013

Debt Ceiling Crisis? What Crisis?

As everyone expected, the US government budget shutdown fight has started to merge with the debt ceiling fight.  As Boehner said in a speech recently:

"The votes are not in the House to pass a clean debt limit" -- one with no conditions attached -- "and the president is risking default by not having a conversation with us," said Boehner, R-Ohio.

The government shutdown is no doubt an unnecessary drag on the economy but its temporary (hopefully) nature is not as big of a deal as a debt default.  When the entire world pegs their interest rates to the US, a treasury default is almost unimaginable.

So far, the world and the market is calling the Republican's bluff.

After over a week of shutdown, the 7-10 year Treasury has barely moved and shows no sign of a price or yield change.  They frankly don't think the GOP is stupid enough to do this.

Will they be right?  There's still 10 days to go and while most believe the GOP is not THAT stupid...I'm always reminded of a quote (from Einstein? who knows):

"The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits."

No comments:

Post a Comment