Tuesday, 25 September 2012

VIX Indicator Update - Market Top Possibility

Pretty rough day in the market today, finally breaking 1% down after over 60 days.  While this is a sudden drop vs the last few weeks, its not necessarily surprising as the market has been demonstrating significant weakness ever since the QE3 announcement.

As you can see below, the market peak so far was the day after QE3 and the market has been trading sideways to down ever since.  Even the MACD indicator are showing a market reversal.

In my previous post, I showed the VIX had a good correlation to market tops and the VIX was at close to its historical lows:

Looking at the recent VIX results:

The VIX hit a low of ~14 around mid August and the S&P was starting to demonstrate weakness at this same period.  However, QE3 intervened and pushed the VIX back down.  In the last week, VIX hit its low again and is now trying to bounce back up.  Today's weakness is evidence of that trend.

Is today's drop an indication the market is trying to reassert its downward trend that was interrupted by QE3?  Hard to tell but the VIX doesn't have much more room to go down and the market is at a very strong high.

If you don't want to reduce your exposure, considering some hedges at least would be a good idea.

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