Monday, 26 November 2012

Europe and Greek Whack a Mole - Again

Finally just got back from overseas trip but still jet lagged.  Expect to see regular postings to resume shortly.

However, tonights news is another Euro zone & Greek bailout whack a mole with them finally agreeing to a debt deal after several failed meetings.

From Marketwatch: 

- Euro-zone finance ministers, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund agreed early Tuesday on a plan to cut Greece's government debt to 124% of gross domestic product by 2020 and to less than 110% of GDP by 2022, paving the way for the country to receive its next tranche of financial aid. At a news conference in Brussels, European Commissioner for Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said that "Greece has shown that it is serious about reform," and has kept to its commitments. The euro moved higher after the news, trading just below $1.2996, up from $1.2961 ahead of the announcement.

Market Reaction?  

Index FutureFuture DateLastNet ChangeOpenHighLowTime
DJIA INDEXDec1212,957.00+21.00N.A.12,969.0012,943.0019:59:18
S&P 500Dec121,405.90+2.601,404.201,407.401,403.6019:59:18
NASDAQ 100Dec122,652.00+6.252,652.752,655.002,651.7519:59:18

Somewhat mild so far but its still a while to market opens.  However, the market has been on a strong rally since last week (almost exactly after my post about starting to jump back into the market).  Since then, the S&P 500 is up almost 4%, neatly retracing almost half of its drop from its Oct peaks.  However, you'll notice that the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) which dropped much further is still significantly off its peaks.  QQQ dropped almost 13% from its peak and has only retraced slightly more than 1/3 of it.  Assuming both return to their peak (big assumption to be sure), a switch from over more conservative positions that didn't drop as much into areas such as tech which did may be a profitable endeavor.  One thing going for tech is that its got incredibly low valuations now compared to historical trends and in other industries.     

P/E Ratios:

IBM at 13.9, Intel (INTC) at 8.7, Apple (AAPL) at 13.4, etc.  In comparison, retailers like Walmart (WMT) is at 14.4, GE at 15.6, etc.

Disclosure: I own significant long positions in tech such as INTC, IBM and QQQ in general.  Also hold some long positions in non-tech such as GE.

No comments:

Post a Comment