Monday, 19 November 2012

Market Update - Oversold and positioned for a short term pop

After a pretty run up from June bottoms, the markets hit a strong peak in Sept-Oct.  As everyone is aware, the market then took a pretty quick drop back down since then.  As of friday's close, the S&P 500 is down a relatively mild 7.2%, a surprisingly small drop that is not yet considered a correction (10%).  The Nasdaq on the other hand, had a stronger drop, closing almost 10.8% lower than its peak.  Tech has been incredibly weak this quarter surprisingly.  

The below chart indicates the Q4 performance so far (from Global Macro Monitor) and its clear the big drop in Tech so far this quarter.  Surprisingly, financials have fared the best at only a minus 2% drop.  However, all the sectors are negative for the quarter.

Looking at the below charts of the S&P and Nasdaq Composite, after several temporary plateaus at various support points, the markets have finally arrived at a few oversold indicators.  Granted, just because is there doesn't mean that its going to bounce back from here but its at least a positive indicator that a short term bounce may be coming soon.  This may be a good opportunity to cost average in a few purchases.

Edit: Note that I suggest to begin cost averaging in rather than all in.  Typically where I find the market is that it moves up and down for a short while before committing to either an up or down trend.  As the indicators only begin to show oversold and not that a reversal trend has occurred, its much too early to fully jump in.

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