Thursday, 20 June 2013

The 10 Year Note Yield

With the Fed's report today on tapering and the impending end of ZIRP, lets take a quick look at the 10 year treasury note yield.

The 10 year note yield has shot up to 2.37% as of right now, up 43% (!) from its low at the beginning of May.  

Looking at the 3 year chart, it shows how far we still have to go.  While its quite a bit off its lows, there's still a long ways to go before we hit recent values of 3%+.

Market response has been relatively benign (so far).  However, I'm glad I don't own any more bonds.  For stable safe havens, bonds have been anything but, especially in anticipation of yield changes.  And honestly, this is completely expected.  People know that yields were at unsustainable lows, and that it was going to go up (causing bond prices to drop).  

It was obvious, hence why I sold off a while ago.  Just look at the chart below for BND, the total bond market fund.  Its down 3% in 1.5 months for price.  Considering the yield for BND is only 2.5%, you just lost 1.25 yrs worth of returns.  And there's more downside to come as I mentioned above.


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