Thursday, 26 January 2012

Market Update - Opening Futures and Follow Through

Today broke a recent trend in the stock market daily performance and its opening futures.  For the last several days, the stock market futures has signaled significant drops at opening hours.  Almost all of these eventually reversed over the course of the day to result in a higher close.

Today the market actually opened up and gradually got pushed down.  Is this a sign that the buying pressures are starting to fade, leaving room for the selling to really take over?  Technical indicators are almost all telling a consistent case that the market is overbought.  However, few stocks have actually dropped in value (bullish) though their indicators are distinctly in the red (bearish).  General Electric (GE) is a clear example.

Due to this gap between indicators and actual price movement, there's definitely a risk in moving too far in one direction or other.  For now, I'm keeping ~25% in cash/bonds while entering in some put options as a hedge.

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