Sunday, 22 January 2012

Market Update - Overbought Indicators

Time for another market update.  After posting 3 winning weeks since the beginning of the year, the stock market has risen to significant highs.  While overall every stock has been doing well, financials have been overperforming (with exception of a few names following earnings reports).  So is the market overbought?

In a simple word: likely.  However, as the famous saying goes, "the market can stay irrational than you can stay solvent."  Though indicators are looking high, not all of them have shown indications they're reversing yet.

Look for some more examples below:

The S&P has broken past its late Oct peak and has not shown strong indicators of reversals yet surprisingly.  However, RSI's are high and MACD do not look very strong for continue momentum.  I would still expect market to consolidate before deciding whether it can continue up but more likely it'll pull back slightly.   

General Electric (GE) is showing much stronger overbought indicators with both a MACD and RSI looking obvious signs.  It has also been struggling to continue staying above the $19 line.  I've starting selling small portions of holdings in preparation of a pullback.

While international stocks have not been participating in the rally at the beginning of the year, it has picked up in the last few weeks and is now in a position to break through the late Oct peak and its 200 day moving average.  Still looks strong for a challenge of its resistance lines.

XLF is similar in that it is challenging its highs and have broken through 200 DMA.  Challenge is going to continue being the earnings environment which have been uneven in strength with Citigroup and JP Morgan showing difficulties while GS and BAC have done better.  I would expect it to peter out a bit.

As market likely looks to be overextended, I have starting trimming some holdings and will continue to do so as market movements confirm a pullback.


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