Tuesday, 10 January 2012

Market Update - S&P 500 50DMA and Overbought Indicators

Finally back from an especially long holiday.  So far, 2012 has been off to a very strong start, pushing aside concerns of Europe weakness to gain 2.7% already.  The current rally looks to be a continuation of the market bottom I had called that exact day.  The S&P has now hit its resistance point at ~1290.

Some of the indicators are beginning to look overbought, such as the S&P 500 percentage of stocks above their 50 day moving average (high 81) matching some of the levels saw in the last couple of market tops.

Several individual stocks look even more overbought such as GE with very high RSI indicators.

However, while a market top appears to be in the early stages of forming, its still too early to tell.  The next 5 days or so will be very important to see if the market can consolidate its recent gains or if it'll be able to break up or down.

Edit:  I do expect significant selling pressure over the next few days however as the resistance line is tested.

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